Monday Maverick Musings…

If you listen carefully, you can very faintly hear two distinct sounds; the long and drawn-out defrosting of Mariah Carey ahead of the word we all mustn’t mention yet, and Fantasy Premier League managers frantically tinkering with their teams ahead of the ever-looming deadline on Friday. 

While we’ve all had a substantial part of the summer to organise our teams and take stock of the season ahead, many of us, myself included, have still not settled on a team. Part of that is down to the solid job FPL Towers have done in pricing players this year. However, the primary reason is that we’re all addicted to this game like a wasp is to a freshly poured Fruit Cider an can’t pick up our phones without making at least three transfers. If you’re not one of these people, I salute you. And also beg you to help all of us be like you. 

With the season starting on Friday, I thought I’d pen my thoughts on the current state of play with my team, my deliberations still, and why in my infinite wisdom I’m not picking Semenyo ever again. Okay, I may not explain that last one but if you owned him for a very specific part of last season like I did, you’ll know why the Vietnam-style flashbacks mean I won’t be touching him with a ten-foot bargepole.

Goalkeepers

I feel like I’ve swapped out my goalkeepers more frequently than my defenders if I’m honest. Traditionally, I’ve tended to start the season with two £4.5m goalkeepers, primarily because I’m a sadomasochist and like looking at benched clean sheets while I’m sitting there with a zero-pointer on my pitch.

While I’ve been severely tempted to pick Sels as my set and forget, I want a Forest defender and don’t want the double-up. So, it’s looking like Verbruggen and Petrovic for me, as they rotate fairly well (for the most part).

Defenders

When pre-season started and the game launched, my eyes widened. ‘Maybe this year is the year Big at the Back can be viable?’ I said to myself. Oh, the follies of youth.

As we get closer to the deadline, and the more expensive players shed clean sheets like a mother with an incontinent baby, I’m increasingly tempted to cut my expenditure here significantly. To put it into context, I’ve gone from having Van Dijk, Cucurella and Williams, to just Cucurella. I have replaced Williams with Murillo though (he’s a favourite of mine).

While Ait-Nouri could be a hugely promising pick for the community, there is just too much risk associated with that Manchester City defence right now. I’m not confident they will keep too many clean sheets, especially with Rodri out of action for a while, and his minutes aren’t assured enough for me to pick him.

Likewise with the Liverpool full-backs. With the signings they have made, I expect them to be more open to counter attacks and an ageing Van Dijk just isn’t capable of reaching the incredible defensive heights he once did (he’s still a great defender, so don’t come at me Liverpool fans). I’m also not confident Kerkez and Frimpong will both start the majority of matches. It’s a long season, and both Robertson and Bradley are solid replacements for Slot to choose from.

Arsenal’s defence, while strong, are up against a tough fixture list to start with and I don’t know if you want to have someone like Gabriel just for the Leeds game when there are initially better choices in other teams.

The rest of my defence are two £4.5m players, and Ekdal from Burnley. I don’t want Esteve as he’s so highly owned that he’ll likely drop in price to £3.9m if Burnley don’t keep clean sheets (which I don’t expect them to).

My two £4.5m defenders are the only two I think I’m left to lock in. Having said that, I think Van de Ven is fairly nailed for me, so then it’s just deciding between Richards and Dorgu. I hate owning Manchester United defenders, but that Burnley game in Gameweek Four is tempting. One for the final day decisions I suspect.

Midfielders

While I understand the temptation to avoid Salah, especially after his poor showing against Crystal Palace in the Community Shield, it’s too much of a risk (even for me). I actually think the inclusion of Wirtz and Frimpong will help him move further inside and he was taking up some promising positions in that match. Also, if he does start the season badly, you can downgrade from him to literally anyone else (and even use him as a makeweight for Haaland in Gameweek Six.

Palmer’s come back into my team, and most others, like a long-lost son has returned to the family home after years of being away and previous misdemeanours forgotten about. While it’s very easy to remember his horrendous second half to last season, he’s showed glimpses of his former self in recent matches, so the hope is he links well with Chelsea’s one thousand new wingers and strikers.

The rest of the midfield is pretty much a shambles. It changes more times than a Big Show heel/face turn (if you know, you know). Saka’s currently in there, but it’s hard to decide between him and Gyokeres for Arsenal cover. I’ll probably pick Saka given his assured starts but boy is it tempting to pick the Swede so that I can post irritating emojis and gifs every time he scores.

I was burned by Wirtz during the last Euros Fantasy, when he did very little for me, so it’s perhaps mental scarring that prevents me from bringing him in. I also do wonder if the weight of his transfer fee will weigh heavy on his shoulders if he doesn’t get any assists or goals in the first few? He has looked sharp, don’t get me wrong, but he’s such a popular pick in Twitter circles that I’m not picking him almost purely out of spite. I await that to bite me on the proverbial.

Reijnders has appeared way ahead of the winter, even beating the aforementioned Mariah, and at £5.5m, he could be an absolute steal if he gets starts – which Pep seemed to suggest he would. I certainly like him more than the content creator’s favourite of Anderson. I understand the appeal but I can’t bring myself to bring him in personally.

The rest of the Manchester City midfield, while they interest me, are just too shrouded in mystery right now. I’d love to punt for someone like Cherki at £6.5m, but I can’t guarantee he’ll start. Foden could be an option at £8m but will he just be a replica of himself from last season?

I understand the online clamouring for Kudus given his price and Tottenham’s early fixtures but there’s something about him that puts me off. He seemed patchy last season, albeit for an out-of-form West Ham side, and the potential signing of Savinho does add some question marks around his playing time.

Paqueta at £6m has teased me, especially with him playing as the 10 behind Bowen and Fullkrug. Unfortunately, because there are cheaper options equally likely to grab occasional decent hauls, sadly I don’t think I can fit him in.

The rest of the cheap midfielders are hard to separate. Dewsbury-Hall could be a gem at £5m but if the Toffees sign Grealish, you have to wonder if he’s going to miss out to compensate for McNeil, Grealish and Ndiaye. Likewise, Le Fee and Xhaka could be great shouts for the same price but bear in mind, they do play for a promoted side so they’re maybe ones to watch.

I do, however, like the potential of Josh King at Fulham (no, not that former English striker ;-)). At £4.5m, he could be an absolute bargain if he continues playing like he has been in pre-season.

Forwards

Boy oh boy, have I struggled with the forwards this year. When the prices were revealed, I said very early that I didn’t like many of them and could see more value in the midfield.

Since then, I’ve had a front three of Gyokeres, Haaland and Joao Pedro (not currently I might add, I haven’t hacked the game). It’s so hard to know what to do because I normally have a good vibe over who’s going to perform well and who won’t, when it comes to the strikers.

Haaland is obviously Haaland and if I don’t own him for Gameweek One, I’ll most likely own him by Gameweek Six when he plays Burnley at home. I fully expect Gyokeres to have a brilliant season and I really want to own him for Leeds in Gameweek Two but can’t guarantee his minutes, especially with Havertz looking sharp in pre-season and Saka being more nailed in addition to the extra point for a goal and potential clean sheet points.

Watkins, who’s in my current lineup especially given Rogers is a doubt, is on such good form in pre-season and cannot be ignored.

Ekitike looked dangerous in the Community Shield and scored a lovely goal, but his minutes will surely be under threat if the Isak move does go through.

Bowen is a wonderful player, and someone who helped me get one of my best ranks several seasons ago, but his positional change in FPL and price of £8m puts him out of reach for me, sadly.

While Joao Pedro will be a popular pick, and I totally get why, I don’t want him and Palmer and in all honesty, not owning Palmer scares me more than not owning Joao Pedro.

That leaves the £7m strikers and under, and here’s where it gets tricky. There aren’t that many I like. Evanilson was a favourite of mine (I didn’t own him much but did praise him on here – I should have taken my own advice) but I do wonder how they will fare with half their starting 11 having left for pastures new.

Strand Larsen was a solid pick last season but I think he remains a wait and see. Welbeck has decent fixtures but his age and fitness makes me hesitant to pick him unfortunately.

That leaves me with Fullkrug and Thiago as potential options. I like the West Ham man, and he’s currently in my team and there is a hope that he can continue the form of pre-season. With Wilson waiting in the wings though, will he keep playing if results don’t go West Ham’s way?

Thiago I don’t really know a lot about but people seem to think he’ll be on penalties which increases his appeal. I do fear that Brentford will try to be a very defensive team under Andrews though (please tell me if I’m wrong if any Brentford fans are reading this) so I’m not sure whether the bees will be buzzing this season.

Piroe at £5.5m could be an option as I don’t mind Leeds fixtures after the Arsenal game but they could bring someone else in before the transfer window closes so that puts me off a little.

Guiu at £4.5m is tempting if the rumours about Chelsea’s clause in his loan deal turn out to be true. But I also fear he’ll quickly drop to £4.4m if he doesn’t get game time.

Closing thoughts

So there you have it. Just four days to go until the deadline and I’m still as confused as ever. I hoped penning all my thoughts would help clear my mind and show me the way forward, but alas not. However, I’ll at least take solace if you enjoyed reading this ramble! If you did get this far, make sure to reply to my Twitter or Bluesky post with the phase ‘Purple Monkey Dishwasher’. (Again, if you know, you’ll know).

Want a differential captain for Gameweek 38?

It seems like it’s taken a very long time to get here but we’re finally just one gameweek away from the end of the season! What will we all do for those 8 or so weeks until the new game is launched, eh?

When we get to the crunch point of the season, many of us are chasing mini league leaders or desperately trying to climb as many places as possible. While it might be important to take a bit of a risk with your transfer or your captain pick if you do want to gain as much rank as you can, it’s still well worth considering the best options that aren’t too ‘maverick’. We all know how much fun you can have by going incredibly bold with your captain pick in the last gameweek of the season but why risk dropping further by picking someone never destined to haul?

While the obvious picks of KDB, Kane, Son and Salah (if fit) are well worth considering if you’re leading your mini league or you’re happy with your rank as it is, there are a number of differential options that you could potentially pick without being chastised in the FPL community! I’m going to give you six potential picks if you’re looking to chase ranks, starting with Manchester City’s Brazilian forward, Jesus.

Gabriel Jesus

Potentially playing his last game for the Citizens at the Etihad, Jesus is a strong choice for a differential captain in Gameweek 38. Facing Steven Gerrard’s Villa and knowing the title is on the line, Pep will want to seal the league title in convincing fashion and I’m certain that Jesus can play a significant part in that.

Not only has Jesus scored 6 goals in the past 4 games, his underlying stats, as well as passing the eye test, have led me to consider him myself.  In the last 6 gameweeks, he’s averaging a shot every 26.4 minutes and a shot in the box every 30.2. He’s also scoring a point every 9.4 minutes too.

Pep isn’t the most sentimental of managers but I do think that if he knows that Jesus is off in the summer, he’ll want to start him and give him the send-off he deserves. Of all the players I’m listing in this article, he’s the one I’d be most inclined to captain if I really wanted a differential.

Raheem Sterling

Talking of Manchester City takes me to Raheem Sterling. Like his aforementioned team-mate, his underlying recent stats are pretty good. There is always the looming shadow of Pep’s roulette wheel and he’s certainly not guaranteed to start but if he does, I expect him to do well against Aston Villa.

In the last 6 gameweeks, he’s scored three times and assisted once. He’s averaging a touch in the box every 11.2 minutes and a shot every 43.5. Shots in the box are averaging out at 48.3 minutes per attempt and his point scoring in the last 6 is currently at 12.4 minutes per point.

Another player who could conceivably be leaving the Etihad in the summer so he could well be determined to either show Pep what he can still offer him or show potential suitors why they should splash the cash on him.

Luis Diaz

The side hoping that Manchester City slip up is Klopp’s quadruple chasing Liverpool. For those of you with Salah money burning a hole in your pocket but still wanting a Liverpool midfielder, why not consider Luis Diaz?

The Colombian has been absolutely sensational since arriving at Anfield and stole the show in the FA Cup Final with his performance. After being rested against Southampton, he’s surely likely to start the final game of the season, especially with 6 days between the game against Wolves and the Champions League final.

In the last 6 gameweeks, he’s assisted three goals and scored twice himself. He’s averaging 11.6 minutes per touch in the box and taken a shot in the box every 31 minutes on average. He’s also averaging a point every 10.6 minutes.

Harvey Barnes

Probably the most in-form man in this list and the player that’s benefitted the most from Jamie Vardy’s return to the side is Harvey Barnes. The young Englishman has played incredibly well in the last few games and got rested against Chelsea, so I’d expect him to start the game against Southampton.

In the last 6 gameweeks, he’s scored 3 goals and assisted a team-mate 3 times too. He’s averaging a touch in the box every 13.6 minutes and a shot in the box every 48.4. At 8.5 minutes per point, he’s one of the best performing players in FPL currently.

With a good fixture against Southampton and a few days extra rest, he’s certainly an option if you really want a differential (and potentially maverick) captain this week.

Jamie Vardy

As I go through this list, the risks start to increase even more and this is no different with Jamie Vardy. While I think he’s a great pick for a differential captain this week, especially given he’s playing Southampton at home, I would be lying if I said I was confident that he’ll start the game. If he does, I expect him to haul well though.

As he played both games in the double gameweek in 37, I have to admit that I’d be a little concerned about his minutes being managed. Especially if the rumours about him and his wife leaving England as soon as possible following the ‘Wagatha Christie’ court case. (Did I really just write that!?)

In terms of his form and underlying stats, Vardy has scored 4 goals in his last 6 gameweeks and averaged a shot in the box every 19.8 minutes. He’s also averaging a point every 8.2 minutes, which is very impressive.

Reece James

The last player on this list is the most risky and given his point-scoring potential, that should be quite surprising. But as Tuchel has stated in his most recent press conference that he’s tempted to play some players ‘who haven’t played much this season’, it begs the question ‘Will James be one of those players dropped or rested?’

If he does start on Sunday, I fully expect a decent points haul from Reece James. He’s playing against an already relegated Watford that are putting up some horrific defensive stats at the end of the season and we all know how much of a threat he can be, not only in terms of creating chances for teammates but also shooting at goal himself.

In the last 6 gameweeks, he’s assisted a team-mate once and averaging a chance created every 46.5 minutes. He’s also scored bbps every 4.6 minutes and attempted a shot at goal every 46.5 minutes too. He’s by far and away the most risky and most ‘maverick’ of these picks but one that wouldn’t surprise me if he did score a good haul of points on Sunday (if he plays!).

Regardless of who you pick as captain this week and no matter how your team lines up on Sunday, it’s important to try and have some fun with this gameweek. It’s the final gameweek of the season and a good opportunity to try and gain some positions, either overall or in your mini leagues. Plus, we’ll all be complaining about not having Premier League football or FPL to talk about/obsess over in a week or so, so why not make the most of it while it’s still here?!

Good luck for Gameweek 38, one and all. May your arrows be green and your differential captains be successes!

What to do with Kane and Son?

If you’re like me, it will be very tempting to bring in either Harry Kane or Son Heung-min for the next few gameweeks. Not only do they have incredibly promising fixtures, but with a new manager (who in my opinion is one of the top three managers in the world), the omens for strong FPL points are good. However, is it as cut and dried as we all think?

Despite the fact that both aforementioned players are incredibly talented, something has seemed off with Spurs all season and even the introduction of Antonio Conte hasn’t encouraged an upturn in form, especially in the dour performance against Everton in Gameweek 11. Should we really have our heads turned by good fixtures? Will the signing of Conte really improve Kane’s mood following his failed move to Man City in the summer? Or will performances improve once Conte’s had a few decent weeks of training with the team?

Now more than ever, it really is the dilemma of fixtures over form. But, if like me, you’re tempted to ignore the warning signs and sign one of the two (let’s not forget the fact that they are two of the best players in the league), which one should you go for?

Son Heung-min

The South Korean probably has the more ticks in the ‘For’ column compared to Kane; he’s classed as a midfielder, so will score an additional point for a goal and another point for a clean sheet, he’s on better form (in the league) and isn’t desperately looking to leave (as far as I’m aware!!). Also, from an eye-test perspective, he’s generally looked better than Kane all season.

Unlike Kane, he is also well-equipped to produce something out of nothing and doesn’t necessarily need his team-mates to create chances for him. This is especially pertinent given the fact that Spurs’ midfield creativity is currently almost non-existent.

You could also suggest that Son is highly unlikely to need a manager like Conte to perform. You could probably have any manager in charge of Tottenham and Son would still perform to the same high level we all know he can produce week in, week out. Of course, having a manager like Conte could well bring out even more from him so once they’ve had a few weeks to gel together, performances and results could improve even more.

The most obvious difference and advantage in Son’s column is the fact that he’s 1.9m cheaper than the English captain. So if money is tight for you, it might be easier for you to bring in the South Korean.

Harry Kane

Put simply, it’s Harry Kane! We all know just how bad he’s been in the league this season, but surely his form is going to change at some point, right? He’s too good to be this bad all season, regardless of his mental state. He showed for England in the International Break that he knows where the net is (albeit against fairly week opposition), so can that reboot his season?

Regardless of who the manager is, Harry Kane is well equipped to score in almost every league match. He’s proven it time and time again and if people can create chances for him, he will put them in the net. He’s also more likely to haul huge points in one game, so could be a differential captain choice, especially given his fixtures in the next few are incredibly promising. We can’t captain Salah all the time, right? Right?!

Talking of the manager, Conte was quoted as saying in the summer that if he was England manager, he’d be making sure that Kane stayed in the box and didn’t drift back into the middle third. So if Conte can find some way of creating chances and increasing productivity in the central midfield of Tottenham, Kane will be able to stay further forward, thereby making him a much better FPL option moving forward.

He’s also so lowly owned across the entire FPL game that even just having him could be a differential. Plus, in a few weeks, you could always transfer him out for Lukaku, once Chelsea’s fixtures swing a little. Are you willing to take the risk?

Who to pick?

Unfortunately, who you should pick, if either of them, is entirely down to you, your financial situation and how your team is looking right now. They are both great options (on paper) so it really does depend on how brave you want to be and where you have space in your team.

If you are happy to have a 4.5m non-playing striker in your team, then perhaps adding Son as a fifth midfielder is your better option. While you might not necessarily want to captain him over Salah, if you really want a decent differential captain option, he wouldn’t be the worst pick. Plus, let’s be honest, how many premium strikers are performing well right now? So is it the worst idea to reduce funds up front to improve your midfield with the South Korean?

The one caveat I would add the above suggestion is that we’re going to have 10 gameweeks in the next six weeks so it might be a better option to have a team of 15 regular and proven starters with random benchings and injuries highly likely in the coming weeks and over the Christmas period. Of course, if you’ve got additional funds and can have a third striker like Dennis at 5.2m that does actually play minutes each week, go for it!

If like me, you prefer to have three playing strikers and a 4.5m midfielder that you can rely on to get 2 points each week, Harry Kane might be your answer. Most of us are likely to have Vardy, given many of us brought him in for Lukaku when the Belgian got injured, so financially you won’t have to find a huge amount of money to upgrade him to Kane.

Given the amount of premium defenders we all have now, plus likely Livramento, it wouldn’t be the worst idea to reduce one other defender to someone at 4m, like Johnson. That could well give you the funds to bring in Kane for Vardy without having to reduce one of your high-scoring cheap midfielders. Plus, then you will have more flexibility in terms of playing 4 or 5 at the back if your defenders have better fixtures than your other two cheaper strikers.

Ultimately, the decision lays with you. Hopefully, I’ve helped to put everything into context for you and helped balance your decision a little more. Of course, you could choose to pick neither of them and that’s absolutely fine too! In many respects, that might actually work out better than falling for the fixtures over form and picking one of the Spurs assets. Time will tell!

For those of you that have actually read the whole article, I’ll share something with you; I’m considering doing Vardy to Kane and Azpi to Johnson to give me the funds needed. A future move will then be Tierney out for James and Jimenez or Toney down to a cheaper striker like Eduoard, Benteke or Armstrong.

Whatever you decide, good luck for Gameweek 12! Thanks for reading!